This announcement should come as no surprise and was widely expected by the industry. But now that the 39% export tariffs (also known as tariffs) introduced by the US government on Swiss goods on American soil have come into force (since the beginning of August), the effects can be clearly seen. And yes, there is no other way to put it: the effects are shocking. Compared to the same period in 2024, exports of Swiss watches to the US have fallen sharply, to less than half of the previous year's value. However, it is not all negative for the watch industry, as some markets that were previously in a difficult situation appear to be recovering, and as always it is necessary to look at the bigger picture.
Let's quickly summarize what has happened in the last few months. First of all, it should be borne in mind that the entire watch industry is currently facing a slowdown, which is mainly due to the decline in sales in China and Hong Kong in the wake of the real estate crisis in the Middle Kingdom. According to the Swiss Watch Industry Association, China and Hong Kong, historically two of the largest markets for Swiss watch exports (long in the top 3 to top 5), declined by -25.8% and -18.7%, respectively, in 2024 compared to the previous year. As a reminder, 2023 was a record year for Swiss watch exports, and Greater China performed particularly well. However, 2024 saw its first decline in several years as global exports fell by 3%, with China and Hong Kong being the main drivers of this decline.
The direct result of the 39% tariffs
In 2025, global news revolved around the Trump administration's imposition of reciprocal import tariffs on more than 100 countries and trading partners, including China, India and members of the European Union. The announcement of these tariffs, made during a speech by President Trump on Liberation Day (April 2, 2025), featured a (now famous) graphic detailing a 31% tax on goods imported into the United States from Switzerland. This announcement, which came a day after the opening of the watch industry's most important trade fair, Watches and Wonders Geneva, had a massive impact on global sentiment, but there was still hope for negotiations. However, things didn't go as planned.
US President Donald Trump unveils his counter-tariffs on Liberation Day – Image by Haiyun Jiang for the New York Times
In fact, Switzerland's situation has not improved; on the contrary. On August 1, 2025, the White House announced even higher tariffs on Swiss goods imported into the United States, now amounting to 39% of the import price, which immediately caused fear among Swiss politicians and executives who expected significant economic consequences. Although emissaries were sent to the site to negotiate a better deal, the ruling took effect on August 7, 2025. However, it should be borne in mind that these import taxes are levied on the import price of the goods in question and not on the final selling price of, for example, a luxury watch. The way these tariffs are managed and applied to end consumers also varies depending on the brand and the strategies they pursue (full impact on US consumers, global price increases to cover costs, pressure on distribution to reduce margins, etc.).
Exports to the US fell 55.6% in September 2025, but not year-on-year
Given this situation, now that the 39% tariff is in effect (since August), there has been an immediate reaction in the US market, as highlighted in the September report by the Swiss Watch Industry Association (FHS). In fact, compared to the same period in 2024, exports of Swiss watches to the American market fell by 55.6%, from CHF 355 million to CHF 158 million. The US, which was the top market for Swiss watch exports in 2024, has now fallen to third place, behind the UK and Japan.
Source: Association of the Swiss Watch Industry
As the FHS pointed out in its report at global level, “Swiss watch exports fell by 3.1% year-on-year in September to 2 billion francs. This downward trend resulted in cumulative exports in the first nine months of the year reaching 19 billion francs, an overall decline of 1.2%.” This second statement from the FHS is all the more interesting, which states that “most markets recorded significant increases in September, but these were wiped out by the huge correction in the USA (-55.6%). Without this expected, but still exceptional, development, Swiss watch exports would have grown by 7.8%.”
However, several comments are needed to overcome the shock of this “55.6% decline” announcement. If we first look at the overall picture – in particular the behavior of Swiss watch exports to the USA over the entire nine-month period of 2025 – the situation is more complex and actually not that dramatic. This is far from positive, but less alarming than the title of this article suggests. First, since Donald Trump's Liberation Day speech, most brands have anticipated the imposition of the tariffs and have therefore taken preventative measures. This can be clearly seen in exports for April 2025 (+149.2% compared to 2024) and July 2025 (+45% compared to 2024), punctuated by two declining months in May and June.
Source: Association of the Swiss Watch Industry
This situation in September 2025 is only part of the reality. Brands have actually exported watches on a large scale to their US-based subsidiaries and dramatically increased inventories to meet consumer demand for several months. The introduction of tariffs on August 7th was eagerly awaited by many brands and corporations, and the situation in September was certainly to be expected. Secondly, if we look at the bigger picture, we can see that the overall performance of the US market in the first nine months of 2025 (January-September) shows a growth of 10.4% compared to 2024 and a growth of 15.9% compared to 2023, which, I would like to remind, was an all-time record for the watch industry.
It is also important to take into account that this is a very specific piece of information: watch exports. Although this data is an important factor in assessing market health, it does not necessarily reflect sales to end consumers. There may be a difference in September 2025 between the dramatic collapse in exports and the reality of the market and sales in boutiques and retailers – something we cannot currently measure.
Source: Association of the Swiss Watch Industry
Some unexpected surprises
While the United States is one of the most important markets for the watch industry, fortunately it is not the only one. The United Kingdom, now the most important market for Swiss watch exports, recorded growth. With exports of CHF 173 million, exports increased by 15.2% in September 2025, showing a relatively stable performance of -0.8% in the first 9 months of the year compared to the same period in 2024.
On the other side of the world, there was an unexpected turnaround in Greater China: Hong Kong and China each reported significant growth of +20.6% and +17.8%, respectively, in September. Singapore, a key market for high-end watches, also recorded encouraging growth of +8.3% and the entire region showed “renewed momentum,” according to FHS. This could be the first sign of recovery in the region, which has lagged over the past nine months, with China falling 16% in 2025 and Hong Kong falling 8%.
Source: Association of the Swiss Watch Industry
Possibly as a result of the application of tariffs in the United States, two neighboring countries, Canada and Mexico, both recorded impressive growth in September 2025, increasing Swiss watch imports by 18% and 44%, respectively. India also recorded an import boom of 28%. Finally, despite a weak performance, Japan continues to move up the list of top importers of Swiss watches, now becoming the second largest market from fifth place.
In Europe, the situation in September is not particularly promising with exports to France (-3.5%), Italy (-3.9%) and especially Germany (-14.6%). Over a 9-month period, these countries (the third largest in Europe) imported -4.7%, -6.5% and -0.3% Swiss watches, respectively.
Finally, looking at the bigger picture, Swiss watch exports fell 3.1% in September 2025 compared to September 2024, and in the first nine months of the year, exports fell 1.2% compared to 2024. That's certainly not a positive thing, but it's also less dramatic than some expected… At least for now.
https://monochrome-watches.com/industry-news-swiss-watch-export-to-the-us-down-56-percent-september-2025-on-tariffs-recovery-in-china-and-hong-kong/